Below‑Normal Rains and Warmer Temps Threaten Horn of Africa’s Short‑Rain Season

When IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) released its October‑December 2025 outlook, officials warned that below‑normal rainfall and higher temperatures will blanket the Greater Horn of Africa, jeopardising the critical short‑rain (Vuli) period that fuels crops and water supplies.

The forecast was unveiled at the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook ForumNairobi, Kenya, where climate scientists, government officials and development partners gathered to dissect the June‑September rainy season and to chart the way forward for the upcoming OND window.

How the Outlook Was Built

Behind the numbers is a coordinated effort between ICPAC, national meteorological services, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and a suite of development partners. The team pored over satellite data, sea‑surface temperature maps and climate model ensembles to gauge the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is slipping into a negative phase from September through November 2025.

A negative IOD, as explained by Mohamed Ware, Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, generally steers moisture away from East Africa, ushering drier conditions during the period that usually delivers up to 70 % of annual precipitation in parts of Kenya and Somalia.

Rainfall Outlook by Region

The Kenya Meteorological Department’s national outlook paints a patchwork of deficits. Most of the northeast, the coastal strip and the southeastern lowlands are slated for below‑average rain, while the South and Central Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin and Nairobi’s highlands hover near the average‑to‑below line.

On the brighter side, the western highlands of the Rift Valley and pockets of north‑western Kenya could see near‑to‑above‑average showers, offering a modest reprieve for pastoralists in those zones.

Across the broader Horn, South‑Eastern South Sudan, as well as north‑eastern and south‑western Uganda, are the only areas where wetter‑than‑usual conditions are projected, thanks to localized moisture surges that dodge the IOD’s suppressive reach.

Temperature Trends and Hotspots

Temperature forecasts dovetail with the rain picture: the eastern half of the Horn – spanning Somalia, coastal Kenya and parts of Ethiopia – is likely to experience warmer‑than‑average days, upping evaporation rates and stressing already scarce water tables.

Conversely, the cross‑border belt of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia and north‑western Kenya is expected to stay closer to seasonal norms, with some locales even flirting with cooler readings as cloud cover drifts in.

Implications for Agriculture and Livelihoods

For millions of small‑holder farmers, the short‑rain season is the lifeline that kick‑starts planting of maize, sorghum and beans. Below‑normal rain translates directly into lower yields, higher food‑price volatility and amplified risk of malnutrition, especially in pastoral communities that rely on pasture growth.

Health officials are also on alert: hotter, drier conditions can exacerbate water‑borne diseases and heighten the spread of vector‑borne illnesses such as malaria, which tends to surge when stagnant water pools after erratic showers.

Energy producers, particularly those tapping hydroelectric reservoirs in Kenya and Ethiopia, may face reduced generation capacity, prompting utilities to lean more heavily on costly diesel backup or imported electricity.

Early Warning Systems and Regional Cooperation

Deborah M. Barasa, Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry underscored the need for “bridging the early‑warning gap” by sharing data and coordination mechanisms across borders. Her ministry is rolling out community‑level radio bulletins and SMS alerts that translate technical forecasts into actionable advice for farmers.

Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of Kenya Meteorological Department reminded listeners that alerts only save lives when they reach the most vulnerable. KMD is expanding its network of field officers and partnering with NGOs to disseminate climate bulletins in remote pastoral districts.

The consensus among the forum’s participants was clear: collaboration—whether through joint modelling, shared communication platforms or coordinated relief stockpiles—will dictate how effectively the region can absorb the forecast’s shock.

What Comes Next?

Over the next two weeks, ICPAC will issue monthly updates, refining rainfall probability maps as the IOD’s trajectory becomes clearer. Governments across the Horn have pledged to integrate these updates into agricultural extension services, water‑resource planning and disaster‑risk financing.

For donors and development agencies, the outlook signals a call to fast‑track climate‑resilient interventions—such as drought‑tolerant seed distribution, water‑harvesting infrastructure and nutrition‑supplement programs—before the rains arrive.

• Key Fact: Negative Indian Ocean Dipole expected Sep‑Nov 2025.
• Key Fact: Below‑normal rain projected for most of Kenya’s northeast, coastal and southeastern lowlands.
• Key Fact: Warmer‑than‑average temperatures likely in eastern Horn, cooler pockets in Uganda‑South Sudan‑Ethiopia corridor.
• Key Fact: 71st GHACOF convened 2 Oct 2025 in Nairobi.
• Key Fact: Early‑warning systems emphasized by IGAD, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary, and KMD director.